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NFL Bargain Bets: Week 15
Decemer 11th 2008
by Old Man Winner
Arizona Cardinals (-3) vs Minnesota Vikings
Anyone could handicap this game and tell you exactly how each team will game
plan. When the Vikings have the ball, they will run it. That is their strength,
and besides they will have no desire to ask Tavaris Jackson (filling in for
injured Gus Frerotte) to "go out there and win them the game." Arizona is in the
middle of the NFL pack against the run. Therefore, I fully expect AP to get
25-30 carries and be pushing a buck and a half for the game with 1-2 scores.
With a line like that you would assume a Viking victory. Unfortunately for them,
those will likely be their only scores unless they get one from their
def/special teams. Okay so the Vikings eek out twenty-something points.
Now what about the Birds? We know they play better at home. We know the weather
will be good. We know the track will be fast. And yes, we know they will attack
the Vikings through the air. The Cards average a paltry 75 yards per game on the
ground - dead last in the NFL. The Vikings average giving up only 73 yards per
game rushing. So, if you average those out (carry the one, take the square root
of the sum and divide by pi), a novice would guess that Arizona should rush for
about 74 yards, right? Wrong! I will be surprised if Arizona hands off the ball
into the double digits and gains even 40 yards. Is there ANY reason for them to
ever rush the ball in this game? Actually, yes, to give their receivers a rest
from their route running, but that is it. Warner passes for 3 scores and 314
yards - ironically taking over the more heralded Drew Brees by 1 yard in the
race to beat Dan Marino's single season yardage record.
Quite simply, this game comes down to whether Minnesota's running game is better
than Arizona's passing game. I am going with Arizona - at home - veteran,
experienced QB - best receiving tandem in the league - against a very average
pass defense.
Final: Cards 38 Vikes 27
Bargain Bets 2008 Record: 8-5-1
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