NFL Bargain Bets: Week 8
October 25th 2008
by Old Man Winner

New England Patriots (-7) vs St. Louis Rams 

OK, the Rams have won two in a row and the Pats are 1-1 in their last two games. That is the reason this spread is so low. However, I believe the spread should be closer to 2 touchdowns than 1.

This is what I like to call a "Go Losers!" game. Usually the way it works is this: a lousy team is coming off a good game or two (usually at home) and traveling to a normally strong team that has lost the last game or two (usually away). In these games the spread is purposely set too low knowing that folks will bet with the momentum. However, what many of these bettors fail to remember one very important point . . . . THE BETTER TEAM IS BETTER!

Look at whatever stats you want. Bill Belichick has got Matt Cassell going in the right direction. The passing game will continue to improve as he gets more snaps. The running will be average, which is usually sufficient in most games, regardless of who carries the ball - as we have seen over the past couple of years. And the defense and special teams are serviceable.

The Rams, on the other hand, got outplayed by the Redskins and still won the game. Then played Dallas, a team with absolutely no defense now, and trounced them. When the season is over, these games will be viewed as the exception, not the rule. Jackson, their only stud player (that's right, Holt has completely lost it), is very banged up and may not even play. Besides, the Rams defense can't stop the run or the pass.

The Pats also feel the pressure being put on by the Bills who are one game ahead of them in the division. Belichick is going to make sure they are not going to look past the Rams this week. Give the 7 points and consider it a gift.


Bargain Bets 2008 Record:  5-2