NFL Bargain Bets for Week 11
November 18th 2009 - Old Man Winner             

The Giants started the year 5-0 and have since lost four games in a row. So, how is it that this is my favorite pick of the week? First off, all those losses came at the hands of quality, streaking teams (NO, Ari, Phi, SD) - good teams. In many respects this is the proverbial "must win" game.

Also, I am a fan of Tom Coughlin. He is a good coach. You can always tell the good ones. Their teams win at the beginning of the year and after bye weeks. Their coaching makes a difference. Bye weeks for many teams don't mean much. However, when you have a good coach and an intelligent QB who needed an extra week to "health up", a bye week can mean a lot. I think this is that situation.

In the NYG four consecutive losses heading into the bye week Eli was visibly struggling with his heel issue and was not stepping into his throws as he usually does. This will assuredly be corrected during the off week. Also, key defensive players have had some time to nurse their wounds and look at some pretty dismal tape on getting burned deep the past few games. I think Coughlin will easily correct these obvious defects in their defense and come ready to play against another reeling, banged up team.

The Falcons lost their key offensive weapon in Michael Turner in last week's loss to Carolina. They got beat by a physical team. They will play an equally tough team this week and be without their superstar RB. Their second stringer, Jerrius Norwood, is also questionable. So, that leaves the rushing duties to Jason Snelling - not exactly a household name. The only true weapon remaining will be the Matt Ryan to Roddy White connection. This could work against a team that has been beat deep lately, but I expect the Giants to see this and scheme for it.

I see a conservative game plan by both teams, but think the Giants pass rush and better ground game will prevail late in the game. I like the Giants by low double digits.

Take the New York Giants -6.5 vs Atlanta Falcons