NFL Best Bets for Week 4
September 30th 2011- Old Man Winner             

SF +9 @ Phi

This one is pretty simple. 9 points is just too many for Philly to cover against a very competitive team.

Philly currently ranks second in the league in rushing (182 yds/game). That has been there only saving grace as spotty pass protection has not allowed Vick to get the ball downfield. Vick has been physically abused this year and based on his physical condition look for Philly to focus on their run game. Although I could see them having a decent game on the ground (100-120 yards), I don't see them running roughshod against a physical SF rush defense.

On the flip side of the ball, Philly is vulnerable to the run which means that SF's game plan should be fairly conservative as well. This should be a low scoring affair with the defenses dominating and the outcome determined by which team either hits more big plays or forces the biggest turnover.

I do see Philly likely winning, but not being able to cover too big a spread.

Phi 20 SF 16


I also like:
PHI/SF Under 44
Wash/Stl Under 43.5
Buff/Cin Over 43.5 (Total has averaged 62 pts in their last 4 meetings)
NYJ/Bal Under 42.5 (Total has averaged 26 pts in their last 4 meetings)