Don't Worry About the Spread, Just Pick the Winner
December 23rd 2011             

About this time every season, I like to take a look at a very interesting statistic. The statistic is - does a favorite cover the spread when they win the football game? After the first fifteen games of the 2011 NFL season, the favorite has covered the spread a remarkable 74% of the time, posting a 103-36-9 record when they have won the football game. If you are very confident that the favorite is going to win the game, then you have a 74% chance of covering the spread if the favorite team wins.

The Packers have been favored in all 15 of their games and have only failed to cover 4 times in their wins. Here are the week by week details of the analysis:
 

Week	Record ATS	Notes
1	7-3-1	3 home favorite winners failed to cover: NYJ, Jags, and SD
2	8-3-2	Back door cover by Car vs GB, Was & Den failed to cover
3	5-6	Miami, Minn, KC, Indy, Denver and Washington all covered
4	8-3	Teams covering were Carolina, Indy, and Seattle
5	6-1-1	Carolina played spoiler again covering against NO
6	8-2-1	Jags kept it close in Pittsburgh and Dallas covered at NE
7	5-1-1	Ponder spoiled a perfect week 7 vs GB
8	6-2	Ravens and Giants both won but did not cover
9	6-1	Cowboys were the only team to win and not cover
10	8-0	Perfect week
11	6-2-2	Cowboys and Packers both failed to cover as favorites
12	9-4	Bengals, Steelers, Cowboys, and Jets did not cover
13	7-2	Patriots and Packers failed to cover as a favorite
14	6-5	Broncos, Patriots, Lions, Ravens,and Steelers did not cover
15	8-1-1	Good week for the favorites - Cardinals spoiled perfection