NFL Conference Underdog Pick
January 22nd 2011 - Special K            

Chicago Bears (+3.5) vs Green Bay Packers

I told Old Man Winner during week 17 that the Packers are going to the Super Bowl. I thought they had the most dangerous offense with Aaron Rodgers at the helm and a solid defense that could travel well. So why am I jumping off the Packers bandwagon now after picking them throughout the playoffs? Because pigs get slaughtered, it is time to sell your stock at the 52 week high! I actually think 3.5 points is too many points to be laying on the road against a team that knows you inside and out. You know Aaron Rodgers is not going to complete 31 of 36 passes like he did against Atlanta, especially in 20 degree weather. You know Peppers and the Bears defense aren't going to let Rodgers escape out of 5 or 6 potential sacks. You know Devin Hester is going to make some big plays in special teams. The Packers gave up a TD to Hester earlier this year in Chicago and also got burned in Atlanta on a kick off return last week. Yes the Packers are the hottest thing going but so weren't the Patriots. Think of the Packers like that baseball team that scores 18 runs one game and then the next game scores one run or gets shutout. It always seems to happen. You'll be watching Sunday's game saying what happened to that offense that marched up and down the field and couldn't be stopped.

The Packers have also been slow starters in most of their games this year. I think this will catch up to them and hurt the Packers this weekend as the pressure of the NFC championship game will be enormous. Even in last week's game, the Packers would have trailed going into halftime had it not been for a Matt Ryan interception in the Packers end zone and another pick-six at the end of the half that just completely deflated the Falcons. If the Bears jump out to an early lead, their defense will make it difficult for the Packers. If the Packers win this game, it will be close and only by a 1 to 3 point margin. 

Take the Bears to cover this week