NFL Conference Championship Underdog Pick
January 20th 2012 - Special K            

New York Giants (+2.5) at San Francisco 49ers

It is only fitting that Eli Manning play in his brother's stadium for the Super Bowl this year. There are several reasons why I like the Giants this week. For one, I get the team with a better offense and a quarterback who is playing elite football. It is a quarterback driven league, just look at the last few Super Bowls. The Giants have a huge advantage at wide receiver with three playmakers (Cruz, Nicks, and Manningham). The 49ers are limited with Crabtree being the only threat.

I expect Alex Smith to struggle this week because the Giants can apply a lot of pressure with their defensive front and can drop more defenders in coverage. The Saints blitzed often last week and got burned several times with Vernon Davis being matched up one on one. The Giants will make sure this doesn't happen this week.

The Giants have much more experience in big games and have played some their best football on the road. The Giants are 4-0 in NFC championship games. I look for them to go 5-0 after this week. There is a lot of value in the Giants getting 2.5 points. I like the Giants in this spot.
 
My prediction: Giants 20 - 49ers 16