NFL Best Bets for Week 10
November 9th 2013 - Old Man Winner
Stl +9.5 vs. Ind.
Motus Operandi - or MO as we call it. Some coaches have one. Some quarterbacks
have one.
What's Bill Belichek's MO? He'll run up the score on a team without hesitation.
What's Marty Schottenheimer's MO? His sphincter will tighten up at the end of a
game and get super conservative. What about the Sherriff, Peyton Manning? The
gunslinger, Brett Favre? or Tony Romo? They all have a history and have built a
reputation of consistency with respect to how they will perform in a certain
situation.
What is Andrew Luck's and the Indianapolis Colts MO? It's becoming really two
things. A cross between a comeback kid, with more 4th quarter comebacks than any
QB in history in their first two years in the league, but rarely any history of
a killer instinct early in games.
Let's take this year's games. In four of the Colts six wins, the games have been
close. The only two exceptions were SF, where the game got out of hand early due
to SF turnovers, and the Jacksonville game (does that one really count? Didn't
think so). The Colts MO is not to get out to a quick start, pull away, and then
bury a team late. On the contrary, its typically to get off to a slow start,
figure things out in the middle of the second half, and deliver a very strong
4th quarter.
So, when you are given the opportunity to get 9.5 points with a team that has
seemed to figure out how to rush the ball, which should slow the game down, you
take it. I also expect the Colts to try and fix their running game and get Trent
Richardson going (if that's even possible anymore). That will also tend to slow
the game.
I do think the Colts will win this one handily, but it probably won't be until
the fourth quarter.
IND 24 STL 20
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