NFL Best Bets for Week 11
November 15th 2013 - Old Man Winner
Since we're nearing the holidays, I thought I would start the presents coming
early by giving you three games this week instead of the usual one. I absolutely
love this week's matchups!! By this time of the season we really start to better
understand what teams really are . . . and what they are not!
New Orleans -3 vs. San Francisco
If this game were in San Francisco it would be a completely different story, but
its not. It's in New Orleans where the Saints have absolutely owned their
opponents. The Saints are undefeated at the Superdome this year and have scored
over 30 points in every home game, but opening weekend, averaging 35 points.
And, its only getting better . . . their most recent 3 games they've averaged
over 40 pts, while dropping a 49 spot on Dallas.
I know San Fran is no Dallas, but they are definitely hot and cold, and just not
proven strong enough and consistent enough to beat the good teams. San Francisco
is 2-3 against opponents with a winning record, and both wins (GB and Arizona)
were against 5-4 teams.
With Vernon Davis questionable, the Saints will crowd the box and challenge
Kaepernick to beat them deep. Sounds like a good plan until you think about who
can get deep for the 9er's. They just released their only deep threat in Kyle
Williams this week. I expect a couple of longer runs by Kaepernick, but not
enough to overcome an onslaught of offense from the Saints.
This is a matchup of two top five head coaches. Give me the one that is playing
at home.
Saints 34 9ers 24
KC +8.5 @ Den
About 85-90% of the time the public will be on the side of the favorite,
seemingly regardless of the spread. It has been like this for as long as I can
remember. It is also true that the wise guys (or sharps as they are referred to
now) make their living on the side of the underdog. It is very rare to see 70%
of the public on the underdog and 90% of the sharps on the underdog, as is the
case in this game. This is normally a recipe for disaster - with Vegas cleaning
up as always. However, I just can't help myself on this one - I have to side
with the others and take the Chiefs.
I don't think this analysis is any different than most others. I just happen to
think its right!
Peyton Manning, if he plays (likely), will, at the least, be less mobile than he
normally is (which is just North of Governor Chris Christie), but with the
Chiefs league-best pass rush I think that will make a difference.
KC will also undoubtedly attack Denver on the ground, minimize turnovers, and
make Denver grind to win this one.
In another rarity, both the public and the sharps like the UNDER, as do I.
Interesting because Denver games have all been OVER, but the last one.
KC 24 DEN 23
TB +1.5 vs. ATL
How in the world can anyone feel confident taking a 1-8 team? I'll tell you
how. When they are playing a 2-8 team without any of their weapons!
This is simple math, folks. The Falcons minus Julio Jones, minus Roddy White,
minus Steven Jackson, minus Tony Gonzales = Not Mucho!!!
Wait you say - Roddy White is playing. Yes, but he'll be on Revis island. Wait
you say - Steven Jackson is playing. Really, I haven't noticed. Wait you say -
Tony Gonzales might play. OK, I'll give you that one. He might play - as of now
he is a "game-time decision", never good!
Atlanta's pass defense is abysmal. They are currently 8th worst in passing yards
against, and 4th worst in passing TD's given up. I know TB is no passing
juggernaut, but still should be able to find the end zone a couple of times. My
bold prediction is that Tiquan Underwood gets into the end zone for only the
second time this year on a long TD.
Also, on a side note, I drafted me some Bobby Rainey in a deep, deep fantasy
league prior to the season, so I look forward to him putting up some #'s too ;-)
TB 27 Atl 17
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