NFL Best Bets for Week 12
November 21st 2014 - Old Man Winner
Stl +5 @ SD
Brutal!
That's what the Rams schedule has been over the last two months. Their last
eight games have been against three division leaders, and all of those games
were against teams with a winning record. Those eight opponents sport a combined
record of 55-26, a 68% winning percentage. Prior to any season starting, usually
the team with the toughest schedule in the league plays teams totaling a 55%
winning percentage. I guess the take away for me here is that these guys have
not only hung tough against some incredibly good teams, they have actually won 3
of their last five beating Denver, San Francisco, and Seattle (three of the last
four Super Bowl contenders).
Now they travel to San Diego, to play another team with a winning record, but
not at all the competition that they have seen recently. The Chargers are
struggling. Their offensive line is weak and hobbled, their receiving core is
average at best, and their run game has only averaged a meek 85 yds. a game. The
Rams defense is coming into its own and getting used to blitzing on on a high
percentage of snaps. They have netted 13 sacks in their last 3 games. During
that same stretch, Phillip Rivers has thrown 5 picks. That is a collision course
just waiting to happen.
The other side of the ball doesn't seem to matter as much. As long as the Rams
don't turn the ball over or kill themselves with stupid penalties, they should
put up an average number of points. Sean Hill throws a nice deep ball and seems
to have found a connection with Kenny Britt. Tre Mason is more talented than
most think, he's just run into some high quality defenses. He should produce
some nice numbers in this one.
Also, special teams, usually forgotten in the analysis, always goes to Jeff
Fisher and crew.
This will be one of the few games not threatened by weather.
I like the Rams in a low scoring affair.
STL 20 SD 17
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