NFL Best Bets for Week 6
October 11th 2014 - Old Man Winner
Pit +1.5 vs. Cle
As part of my weekly routine, I usually start my preparation by setting my own
lines (spreads and Over/Unders) for each game. On average, for each game, there
is normally about a 1.5 pt difference, both for spreads and O/U's, between my
spreads and the actual Vegas line. I have been doing this for 25 years. I do
this to get an idea of where the value may be for the current week's games, but
also to see where Vegas may be missing something (because I know it could never
be me missing something - hahaha). So, when I looked at this game, and set the
line at Cle +2.5, I naturally was surprised and excited to be able to get the
team that I thought was the clear favorite AND be given 1.5 pts to boot.
Look, I think the stat is that Big Ben is 18-1 against the Browns. When this
game comes up on the schedule twice year, you just take the Steelers and move on
to the more difficult games. I must admit, often the Browns keep the game closer
than you would think (site this year's opening weekend when the Steelers had to
win it with a late fg). That said, this time you don't need the Steelers to
cover a spread, just win the game. Sounds good to me.
The Browns are 29th against the rush, and the Steelers have a top 5 weapon in
LeVeon Bell. I expect the Steelers to run all day long against this porous
defense and then, once the defense moves 7 and 8 in the box, throw the ball
downfield. The Browns offense is more potent than people think, especially with
Ben Tate back in the mix, but an elite squad they are not. I expect them to put
up some points on a very average Steeler defense, but the Steeler weapons will
be just too much for the Browns.
Pit 34 Cle 27
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