NFL Underdog Pick Week 5
October 10th 2015 - Special K
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) at Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
I can not resist the opportunity to make a pick in the Florida Toilet Bowl.
Blake Bortles and Jameis Winston are two of the worst ranked quarterbacks in the
league after 4 weeks. Winston is tied for first having thrown the most
interceptions (7) in the NFL. This is one of the reasons why Bortles has a
slightly higher QB rating of 78.9 vs 71.2 for Winston. Meanwhile, Winston has a
slightly higher completion percentage, 54.9% vs 54.5%. Yes, these are atrocious
numbers for both quarterbacks.
However, don't let these statistics fool you. Bortles has played against much
stiffer competition.
The Jags have played teams with a combined record of 11-5 with three of their
losses coming against the Patriots, Panthers, and Colts. The Bucs have faced
teams with a combined record of 7-9 overall.
The Bucs are considering going no huddle this week thinking that this will help
Winston. I doubt it.
With Paul Posluszny likely out, the Bucs would be much better off focusing on
their running game.
My pick basically comes down to trust, I trust 2nd year QB Bortles much more
than Winston.
Also, the Bucs are the worst home team in the NFL.
They have lost 11 straight home games straight up and are 2-9 ATS in those 11
home games.
I will give the Bucs some credit, at least they were smart enough to sign Conner
Barth and drop their kicker who was 50% on field goals and missed two extra
points. The Jags would be 2-2 if their kicker didn't miss two game winning field
goals last week. Not to mention, he also missed a kick when Pagano called a
timeout that didn't count against his stats. I'm surprised we don't see Scobee
back in a Jags uniform.
Even with my kicking concerns, the Bucs have no business even being favored in
this football game.
Take the Jags and the points
Take Bucs and the Points
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