NFL Best Bets for Week 17
December 30th 2016 - Old Man Winner
GB -3.5 @ Det
This is a hard week to make picks on many of the games, but this one is easy!
I hate week #17 for making picks, especially against the spread. Who knows which
teams show up and which don't. Motivations are all over the place - not playing
players for contract reasons, resting players for the playoffs, players wanting
to make a statement to stay on the team, players mailing it in. All of that
happens in week #17. And sometimes, what's even worse, is not knowing in a late
game what motivation could be in place based on the result of an early game.
Because of all these things, I lay off most games in week #17. I solely look for
games which are pure - meaning that both teams have something to play for and
will play the game straight up. There are very few games this week that fit that
requirement but GB @ Det is one of them. In this game the winner wins the
division and automatically makes it into the playoff. And, most importantly,
will play at home next week. That is the key because even this game could be
somewhat meaningless if Washington loses and therefore puts both of these teams
in the playoffs before the game even starts. Even in that case the game is
important because the winner would host the game instead of playing on the road.
To the game . . .
I don't see how this is only a 3.5 pt spread. GB is rolling having won its last
5 games. Aaron Rodgers is on a major roll, the offense is peaking and the
defense has been solid, albeit a bit banged up. Detroit on the other hand has
lost its last two games and its last three games against the spread and Stafford
has not looked the same since injuring his finger.
I see GB ringing the register early and often, especially out of the elements in
the dome. The Packer receivers will be too much for a very average Detroit
secondary.
GB 31 Det 20
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