NFL Bargain Bets: Week 11
November 17th 2007
by Old Man Winner

St. Louis Rams -2.5 @ San Francisco 49ers

The Rams are on the mend and picking up momentum. I know it was only their first victory, but it was quite convincing and against another improving team. The decimated O line is at least showing signs of some ability to block, Bulger is getting healthier by the week, and SJax is back in the line up, which is huge. SF, on the other hand, is moving in the other direction. They've got the worst Offensive Coordinator in football, have just reverted back to Trent Dilfer as their starting QB, Ashlie Lelie is out, and Gore still looks like his ankle is not fully recovered. The Rams aren't that good, but should be able to cover a field goal.


Detroit Lions +3 vs. New York Giants

This is probably a pretty unexpected pick. Both teams got beat up last week with the Giants losing to a good Dallas team and Detroit falling to a much more mediocre Cardinal squad. But, when I look a bit deeper, I see a Giant team that peaked too early. I look to be on the downslope. Burress has not had a good game for about a month and continues to degrade. He only had one catch against Dallas last week after scoring 3 TD's in his first outing this year. The sacks have also slowed. Detroit is truly the tale of two cities. On the road they always struggle. At home they are brilliant - undefeated. The Giants could be coming off of a big loss and may have lost some focus (ala Indianapolis last week after their big loss to New England). However, even in the Lions loss last week they moved the ball and scored on a decent Arizona secondary. Detroit is definitely hot and cold. This is a hot week.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 @ Atlanta Falcons


It's time for the Falcons to come back down to Earth. You have to give them some credit for climbing back to 3-6 after starting off the season 0-3. However, their last two consecutive victories vs. Carolina and SF were against arguably teams in the steepest decline in the entire league. Tampa is nothing if not consistent. They are in the middle of the pack on offense, both rushing and passing. Jeff Garcia is not going to throw any games away. They are solid on defense against the rush and third in the league against the pass. They have had a week off to get healthy and prep the Falcons. The favorite in this matchup has covered in 9 of their last 13 meetings. This should make it 10.