NFL Underdog Pick: Week 6
October 13th 2007
by Special K

KC (+3) vs CIN

Forget the points, I like the Chiefs to win this game outright.  The Chiefs will need ball control and a few turnovers to pull off the victory. I'm expecting this to be the week that Larry Johnson rushes for over 100 yards.  Cincinnati has been giving up an average 145 yards rushing per game.  The Chiefs also have a 13-1 record at Arrowhead when Larry Johnson has a 100+ yard rushing game.  Fantasy owners have been waiting all year for Johnson to explode.  All the historical stats lean towards the Chiefs winning this weekend.  Dating all the way back to 1990, the Chiefs are 25-9 (.735) in their next game at Arrowhead following a home loss.  The Chiefs have not loss back to back home games since the 2004 season.

The Bengals did beat the Chiefs last year at Arrowhead, but that was when Trent Green left the game with a concussion. However, this year the Bengals defense is depleted and their offense will be without right tackle Willie Anderson for the first time in 116 games. Rudi Johnson is also a game time decision as he has a hamstring injury. You've got to love the homedog in this game.