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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
LINE: TB -3  O/U:48
Sun 1:00 PM CBS

Matchup  
  W L T

DIV

HOME

AWAY

AFC

NFC

ATS

O/U
Atlanta Falcons 9 1 0 1-1 5-0 4-1 4-0 5-1 6-4 5-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 4 0 2-1 3-2 3-2 3-0 3-4 8-2 6-3-1

2012 Statistics  
  TB Offense ATL Defense
Points Scored 28.7 19.3
Total Yards 369.3 346.8
Rush Yards 128.5 130.5
Pass Yards 240.8 216.3
3rd Down 34.37% 37.19%
Red Zone Eff 66.66% 56%
Time of Poss 30:05 28:10
  ATL Offense TB Defense
Points Scored 27 23
Total Yards 382.1 394.4
Rush Yards 89.2 82.5
Pass Yards 292.9 311.9
3rd Down 50% 41.13%
Red Zone Eff 56.09% 46.66%
Time of Poss 31:50 30:21

Recent Games        

Date

Week

Result

Line

O/U
Sun, 01/01/12 17 TB 24 @ Atl 45 Atl -11.5 O 46.5
Sun, 09/25/11 3 Atl 13 @ TB 16 TB -1.5 U 45.5
Sun, 12/05/10 13 Atl 28 @ TB 24 Atl -3 O 43.5
Sun, 11/07/10 9 TB 21 @ Atl 27 TB +8.5 O 45
Sun, 01/03/10 17 Atl 20 @ TB 10 Atl -2.5 U 41.5
Sun, 11/29/09 12 TB 17 @ Atl 20 TB +12 U 46
Sun, 12/14/08 15 TB 10 @ Atl 13 P -3 U 43.5
Sun, 09/14/08 2 Atl 9 @ TB 24 TB -7 U 37.5
Sun, 12/16/07 15 Atl 3 @ TB 37 TB -13 O 39
Sun, 11/18/07 11 TB 31 @ Atl 7 TB -3 O 35.5

Matchup Edge
Points Scored
Points Allowed
Yards Gained
Yards Allowed
Rush Offense
Pass Offense
Time of Possession
Red Zone Efficiency
Turnovers
Sacks

Expect a close game with the Atlanta Falcons winning 53% of simulations, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 46% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Atlanta Falcons commit fewer turnovers in 31% of simulations and they go on to win 80% when they take care of the ball. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins 59% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Matt Ryan is averaging 312 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (35% chance) then he helps his team win 61%. Josh Freeman is averaging 255 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (30% chance) then he helps his team win 55%.

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