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Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions
LINE: DET +3.5  O/U:51
Sat 8:20 PM ESPN

Matchup  
  W L T

DIV

HOME

AWAY

AFC

NFC

ATS

O/U
Atlanta Falcons 12 2 0 3-2 7-0 5-2 4-0 8-2 8-5 6-8
Detroit Lions 4 10 0 0-5 2-4 2-6 1-3 3-7 3-8 9-5

2012 Statistics  
  DET Offense ATL Defense
Points Scored 23.57 18.5
Total Yards 406.5 354.35
Rush Yards 104.57 124.85
Pass Yards 301.92 229.5
3rd Down 42.5% 40.58%
Red Zone Eff 61.22% 48.57%
Time of Poss 32:36 28:46
  ATL Offense DET Defense
Points Scored 26.5 27.14
Total Yards 377.42 337.57
Rush Yards 89.92 119
Pass Yards 287.5 218.57
3rd Down 48.53% 36.26%
Red Zone Eff 57.89% 53.12%
Time of Poss 31:14 29:12

Recent Games        

Date

Week

Result

Line

O/U
Sun, 10/23/11 7 Atl 23 @ Det 16 Atl +3.5 U 47.5
Sun, 09/07/08 1 Det 21 @ Atl 34 Atl +3 O 41
Sun, 11/05/06 9 Atl 14 @ Det 30 Det +5 U 47.5
Thu, 11/24/05 12 Atl 27 @ Det 7 Atl -3 U 41
Sun, 10/10/04 5 Det 17 @ Atl 10 Det +6.5 U 41

Matchup Edge
Points Scored
Points Allowed
Yards Gained
Yards Allowed
Rush Offense
Pass Offense
Time of Possession
Red Zone Efficiency
Turnovers
Sacks

Expect a close game with the Atlanta Falcons winning 59% of simulations, and the Detroit Lions 41% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Atlanta Falcons commit fewer turnovers in 58% of simulations and they go on to win 77% when they take care of the ball. The Detroit Lions wins 67% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Matt Ryan is averaging 325 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (38% chance) then he helps his team win 63%. Matthew Stafford is averaging 308 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (29% chance) then he helps his team win 51%.

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