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Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers
LINE: SF -3.5  O/U:47.5
Sun 6:30 PM CBS

Matchup  
  W L T

DIV

HOME

AWAY

AFC

NFC

ATS

O-U
Baltimore Ravens 13 6 0 4-2 7-2 6-4 12-4 2-2 10-9 10-9
San Francisco 49ers 13 4 1 3-2-1 7-1-1 6-3 4-0 9-4-1 10-6-2 10-7-1

2012 Statistics  
  SF Offense BAL Defense
Points Scored 24.81 21.5
Total Yards 361.5 350.87
Rush Yards 155.68 122.37
Pass Yards 205.81 228.5
3rd Down 35.05% 34.48%
Red Zone Eff 50.9% 43.39%
Time of Poss 31:45 32:25
  BAL Offense SF Defense
Points Scored 24.87 17.06
Total Yards 352.5 294.37
Rush Yards 118.81 94.18
Pass Yards 233.68 200.18
3rd Down 35.48% 33.02%
Red Zone Eff 57.14% 61.11%
Time of Poss 28:40 30:06

Recent Games        

Date

Week

Result

Line

O/U
Thu, 11/24/11 12 SF 6 @ Bal 16 Bal -3 U 39
Sun, 10/07/07 5 Bal 9 @ SF 7 SF +3 U 35.5

Matchup Edge
Points Scored
Points Allowed
Yards Gained
Yards Allowed
Rush Offense
Pass Offense
Time of Possession
Red Zone Efficiency
Turnovers tie
Sacks

This game is a virtual coin flip. Both defenses are holding the starting RBs to 3.6 ypc and under 65 yards per sim. And both QBs are completing under 60% of their passes and averaging just 1.3 passing TDs per sim. Kaepernick is averaging 37 rushing yards per sim. When he has 35 or more rushing yards the 49ers win 68% of the time. When held under 35 rushing yards the 49ers win 43% of the simulations. If the Ravens rush for more yards than the 49ers Baltimore is the 78% favorite. Joe Flacco has 8 TDs and 0 INTs in the playoffs. There is a 20% chance that he has 2 or more TDs with 0 INTs and if he does the Ravens are a solid 67% favorite. But if Flacco has even 1 INT the Ravens are 35% underdogs. The Ravens offensive line is massively improved in the playoffs vs the regular season. If the 49ers can overwhelm the Ravens O-Line and sack Flacco 3 or more times the 49ers are 64% favorites and there is a 48% chance of this scenario. But with 2 or less sacks the Ravens win 57% of the sims.

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